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Market Sizing

When it comes to knowing your market, size matters.

Strategic decisions are frequently hinged on assumptions around market size, as it informs the scale and magnitude of opportunities. And the higher the stakes of the decision, the greater the importance of accuracy in modeling the size and outlook.

Market modeling exercises are most common in M&A diligences. Buyers need to know the size and growth potential of a target’s market. And it is an imperative backdrop of the equity story for sell side advisors. In addition, portfolio managers and large corporates require accurate size and growth metrics of key segments to clarify priorities and balance risks.

And as with most complicated processes, success is ultimately measured by the caliber and discipline of the approach.  With decades of experience identifying and evaluating companies, we have the search-and-screen process down to a science. Whatever the driver, Pointe can help.

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How Pointe Can Help

In many cases, market modeling is a subset of a broader consulting arrangement. But, it doesn’t have to be. With hundreds of market sizings under our belt – from $50M regional SAMs to $500B global TAMs – we have the process down to an art. VantagePointe generates thoughtful, thoroughly-researched market models on tight timelines. 

Developing evaluative frameworks to support the identification of attractive market segments and geographies
Define the target’s addressable market and segment based upon articulatable commercial logic
Create proprietary datasets – using both strategic partnerships with data vendors and primary research – to support modeling exercise and ensure high confidence in the output
Build top-down and bottom-up models for each relevant segment of the market
Develop multiple scenarios with probabilistic weighting on likelihood to clarify distribution of potential outcomes across forecast period

Case Studies

Case Study #1

Investment Thesis

For a leading private equity firm, we developed an investment thesis for a national accounting firm and validated the key hypotheses. Pointe’s expertise in the global professional services space and its analysis of management’s forecasts helped the client negotiate a more competitive winning bid. After the close, we led a series of workshops to help guide the 100-day plan.

Case Study #2

Target Evaluation

We assisted a middle market private equity firm in the evaluation of a high-growth target in the logistics and distribution space. The target’s market was experiencing uncapped growth due to COVID disruption. We ensured our client was comfortable with what was a demand pull-forward and what was a sustainable shift in the demand curve. This analysis supported a lower winning bid than initially intended.

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